The US IPO market delivered uneven results in 2025, with investors finding better returns in the broader stock market than in newly listed companies. While several high profile crypto and artificial intelligence firms made their public debut, their mixed performance weighed on overall IPO returns, leaving them trailing the S&P 500.
According to Bloomberg data, US initial public offerings excluding closed end funds and blank check companies delivered a weighted average gain of 13.9% last year. That return fell short of the S&P 500’s 16% rise, highlighting the challenges faced by newly listed companies in a selective and increasingly fundamentals focused market.
Crypto and AI listings weigh on overall returns
Crypto and AI focused companies played a major role in shaping IPO performance during the year. A more favorable political and regulatory climate encouraged Wall Street to back crypto firms with multi billion dollar listings, but not all of those bets paid off.
Several artificial intelligence driven businesses also struggled after going public. Data center developer Fermi and AI backed expense management platform Navan both underperformed following their debuts, reinforcing investor caution toward early stage technology plays with high expectations but uncertain earnings outlooks.
The uneven showing from these sectors dragged down the overall IPO basket, even as enthusiasm for innovation remained strong.
Circle shines early but loses momentum
One of the standout crypto debuts of the year was stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group. The company raised $1.05 billion in its June IPO, pricing shares at $31. Investor demand pushed the stock up by around 170% on its first day of trading, making it one of the most successful launches of 2025.
That early momentum, however, did not last. As Bitcoin declined from its October peak, Circle’s stock followed a similar path. By the end of December, shares had slipped to $79.30, below their first day closing price. The stock has fallen nearly 70% from its high of over $263, closing at $84.80 on Monday.
Shares in Gemini have sunk over 65% since its IPO in September. Source: Google Finance
Circle’s trajectory underscored how closely some crypto IPOs remained tied to broader digital asset market sentiment rather than company specific fundamentals.
Gemini and Bullish struggle after listing
Other crypto listings fared worse. The Winklevoss twins backed exchange Gemini emerged as one of the weakest performing crypto IPOs of the year. Priced at $28 in September, Gemini shares briefly climbed above $32.50 before sliding sharply. By December 31, the stock had dropped 64.5% to $9.92, with only a modest recovery to $11.12 by Monday.
Crypto exchange Bullish, which went public in August, delivered a volatile debut as well. The stock opened at $37 and surged to $68 by the end of its first trading session. That enthusiasm faded over the following months, with shares falling back to $37.87 by year end, close to the original IPO price.
These performances reflected the market’s reassessment of growth expectations and profitability timelines for crypto platforms.
Larger deals outperform smaller offerings
Market observers described 2025 as a year of contrasts for IPOs. Mike Bellin, US IPO leader at PwC, said the market reopened selectively, with investors applying far stricter standards than in previous cycles.
Mid sized IPOs struggled the most. Deals valued between $500 million and $1 billion posted a weighted average gain of just 5.6%. In contrast, offerings worth $1 billion or more delivered average returns of around 20%, suggesting investors preferred scale, stability, and clearer financial visibility.
The year’s largest IPO came from medical equipment supplier Medline, which raised $7.2 billion. Since debuting in mid December, Medline shares have climbed about 40%. The second largest listing, gas exporter Venture Global, told a very different story. The company reduced its offering size by 40% ahead of its debut, and its shares have since fallen 72%, making it one of the worst performers of the year.
Fundamentals take center stage
The mixed results pointed to a clear shift in investor behavior. According to Bellin, the IPO market has firmly returned to a fundamentals driven approach. Investors are no longer willing to back stories alone, particularly in emerging sectors like crypto and AI.
Companies coming to market now face higher expectations around revenue quality, profitability paths, and operational discipline. Those that meet these standards can still attract strong demand, while others risk sharp post listing declines.
As 2026 approaches, the lessons from last year’s IPO market are clear. Size, execution, and financial clarity matter more than hype, and public market investors are increasingly selective about where they place their capital.
