XRP’s recent surge past $3 has reignited speculation about a potential rally toward $30 during the ongoing bull cycle, with some analysts projecting even higher levels. The token’s performance has drawn comparisons to its previous explosive runs, although concerns remain about overvaluation and profit-taking pressures.
Analyst Forecasts $34 Price by Mid-2026
Technical analyst Gert van Lagen believes XRP could climb as high as $34 before mid-2026. His forecast is based on a breakout from a seven-year double-bottom pattern, with the neckline at around $1.80. Following the breakout, XRP retested the neckline, which held as support—often a bullish confirmation in chart analysis.
Van Lagen applies a 2.00 Fibonacci extension to the pattern, resulting in the $34 target. He likens the current setup to the 2014–2017 cycle, when a similar base pattern preceded a parabolic rally that lifted XRP/USD by more than 100,000%.
XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Historic Gains Fuel Optimism
XRP has a history of substantial price jumps. Since its 2022 lows, the token has gained about 1,072%. In the 2020–2021 cycle, it rose more than 1,625%, aided by a near-zero interest rate environment in the United States.
The latest rally—over 550% since November 2024—has been driven by progress in the Ripple lawsuit, increased legal clarity, the relisting of XRP on major exchanges, and optimism over a potential spot ETF approval. Market forecasts suggest that such an approval could send prices toward $27, close to Van Lagen’s projection.
Onchain Metrics Highlight Overvaluation Risks
Despite its rally, XRP Ledger’s (XRPL) growth in decentralised finance remains modest compared with other Layer-1 blockchains. Data from DefiLlama shows XRPL’s market capitalisation at around $190 billion, roughly 2,200 times greater than its total value locked (TVL) of $85 million. By contrast, Ethereum’s market cap is only about 5.6 times its TVL, even though Ethereum is significantly more active onchain.
This imbalance has raised concerns among analysts about XRP’s valuation relative to actual blockchain usage, potentially leaving it vulnerable to corrections.
Profit-Taking Pressures Could Cap Gains
Glassnode data indicates that over 95% of XRP’s circulating supply is currently in profit. Historically, such high levels of unrealised gains have preceded substantial corrections, as seen in both the 2020–2021 and 2022–2025 rallies.
When the majority of holders are in profit, selling activity typically increases, creating downward pressure on prices. If similar behaviour occurs in the current cycle, it could challenge XRP’s ability to sustain momentum toward the $30–$34 range.
XRP/USD two-week price chart. Source: TradingView/Gert van Lagen
Outlook for the Current Bull Cycle
While XRP’s technical structure and historical precedents point toward the possibility of significant gains, fundamental and onchain indicators suggest caution. A combination of ETF optimism, bullish chart patterns, and strong historical rallies supports the case for further upside, yet valuation concerns and profit-taking trends may act as headwinds.
The coming months, particularly around potential ETF developments, are likely to be decisive in determining whether XRP can reach the ambitious $30 target or higher.
