Cardano’s ADA token is enjoying a wave of renewed optimism as traders place increasingly bullish bets on the approval of a spot Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025. Market sentiment has been bolstered by a significant move from Grayscale Investments, which recently registered the Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF in Delaware, a development that traders see as a precursor to a formal ETF filing.
Polymarket Traders Price in 80% Chance of Approval
According to the decentralised prediction market Polymarket, participants are now assigning an 80% probability to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Cardano ETF this year. This sharp rise in perceived odds follows a series of ETF-friendly signals from both the industry and regulators, coupled with a more overtly pro-crypto stance from the Trump administration.
Cardano ETF Approval Odds. Source: Polymarket
The ADA price has rallied alongside these expectations, with traders anticipating that a regulated investment vehicle could open the door to a substantial influx of institutional capital. The bullish sentiment mirrors the run-up to spot Bitcoin ETF approvals earlier this year, where initial filings and market optimism drove strong price action.
Grayscale Moves Early with Trust Registration
On 12 August 2025, Grayscale Investments filed registrations for both the Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF and the Grayscale Hedera Trust ETF with Delaware’s public registry. The filings list CSC Delaware Trust as the registered agent, a standard step in Grayscale’s established ETF playbook.
Grayscale’s Cardano Trust ETF Filing. Source: Delaware’s public registry portal
This type of statutory trust formation is commonly viewed as the first step before an S-1 registration is lodged with the SEC. While it does not guarantee eventual approval, it is a clear indication of Grayscale’s strategic intent to expand its crypto ETF offerings beyond the current Bitcoin and Ethereum products.
Web3 researcher Justin Wu highlighted that both Cardano and Hedera are “gaining traction in real-world asset (RWA) adoption,” adding that trust registration “often comes before a spot ETF filing” and could be followed by a wave of institutional inflows if approved.
SEC Review Process Already Underway
Earlier in 2025, NYSE Arca submitted a 19b-4 filing to the SEC for a proposed Cardano ETF. The regulator has since formally acknowledged the filing, a necessary milestone in the approval process.
This acknowledgment signals that the application has entered the formal review phase, rather than being dismissed at the outset. Historically, this step has been followed by months of scrutiny, public comment periods, and potential amendments before a final decision is made.
Cardano supporters point to the precedent set by the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, where a combination of industry persistence and evolving regulatory frameworks ultimately led to approval. If successful, a Cardano ETF would allow traditional investors to gain ADA exposure without the technical barriers of managing private keys or digital wallets.
Institutional Appetite for Altcoin Exposure Grows
Grayscale’s move comes amid an expanding institutional appetite for diversified crypto exposure. Cardano’s reputation for peer-reviewed development, coupled with its scalable blockchain architecture, positions it as an attractive option for investors seeking long-term growth plays outside Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Analysts also anticipate the SEC could soon adopt a standardised crypto ETF framework, potentially enabling joint approvals for multiple spot ETFs at once. Such a shift could see a wave of altcoin ETFs greenlit in tandem, accelerating mainstream adoption.
For now, the combination of Grayscale’s early positioning, SEC engagement, and strong market sentiment has set the stage for a potentially transformative year for Cardano. If the 80% approval odds on Polymarket prove accurate, 2025 could mark ADA’s entry into the regulated investment mainstream.
