BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently stated that if the U.S. Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates, Bitcoin could quickly rally towards $70,000. Hayes had previously predicted a rise to $70,000 after March, but the Fed raised rates three times since then. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that future decisions will be based on inflation and jobs data.
Analysts are attempting to forecast when the Fed will halt rate hikes or change its course, especially considering the ongoing debt ceiling crisis and the decrease in the Fed’s balance sheet. With the cooling jobs market and an increase in the unemployment rate, it is speculated that the Fed may be done with rate hikes. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of CPI and PPI data this week to gain further insights into the market direction.
Hayes explained that the reason Bitcoin did not reach $70,000 after March was because people focused solely on nominal Fed rates without considering the high nominal GDP growth in the U.S. He believes that cutting rates is the Fed’s only option to restore the health of the banking system and potentially drive Bitcoin towards the $70,000 mark.
During a keynote speech at the Korea Blockchain Week conference, Hayes was asked about the possibility of Bitcoin continuing to rise if the Fed continues to raise rates. He emphasized the positive relationship between Bitcoin and Fed policy, as well as other macro factors. Currently, the turning of real rates (US 2Yr Treasury Yields minus nominal GDP growth) into positive territory suggests a potential rally in Bitcoin.
As of now, BTC is trading at $26,123, experiencing a 2% increase in the last 24 hours. The price surge is attributed to increased buying activity by traders, with trading volume rising by 100% in the past 24 hours.