Bitcoin has once again fallen below the $110,000 threshold, hovering around $108,569.36 after a 2.01% daily decline. The move extends a broader 9% weekly pullback, erasing much of the coin’s recent momentum and testing investors’ conviction ahead of key U.S. policy remarks.
Despite the slide, long-term holders remain relatively undeterred. Analysts note that capital inflows into crypto infrastructure, custody solutions and decentralised payment networks remain robust, signalling continued institutional interest even as short-term volatility intensifies.
The drop comes amid a tense macro backdrop. Washington has yet to finalise a funding deal, raising the risk of a temporary government shutdown. Attention now shifts to President Trump’s upcoming speech, expected to address budget priorities and possible tariffs on Chinese imports, developments that could inject fresh turbulence into both traditional and digital markets.
Traders Position for Downside: $1.15B in Bearish Bets
In the derivatives market, institutional traders have placed over $1.15 billion in downside protection through put options, with 28% of all transactions targeting the $104,000–$108,000 range. Data from Greekslive shows heavy positioning in shallow out-of-the-money puts, reflecting a defensive stance amid growing fears of further corrections.
Market skew has turned deeply negative, matching the levels seen during the October 11 sell-off following the $19 billion liquidation cascade. Analysts note that such extreme sentiment often coincides with short-term panic phases but can also precede major reversals.
Meanwhile, open interest across Bitcoin derivatives stands at $33.0 billion, down 1.67% over the past 24 hours. Of this, $30.9 billion is tied to perpetual contracts and $2.2 billion to traditional futures. This decline indicates capital rotation rather than full-scale exit, a sign that traders are adjusting exposure rather than abandoning positions.
Whale Shorts and On-Chain Activity Raise Eyebrows
Adding to market unease, on-chain data has highlighted several large movements. According to Onchain Lens, a whale transferred 2,000 BTC (worth approximately $222 million) into 51 new addresses, a move likely aimed at enhancing privacy and security rather than signalling panic.
However, other data points reveal a more bearish undertone. Lookonchain reported that one trader opened a 3,440 BTC short position worth roughly $392 million, already sitting on $5.7 million in unrealised gains. Two additional entities have built short books totalling nearly $180 million across BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE.
Adding intrigue, social media chatter has circulated claims of a “Trump insider whale” opening a $120–$127 million Bitcoin short at around $111,386, fuelling speculation that upcoming policy statements could be market-moving.
Source: Coinalyze
Exchange data underscores the institutional footprint: Binance leads with $11.5 billion in open interest, followed by Bybit ($7.0B), Huobi ($4.3B), OKX ($3.6B), Deribit ($2.7B) and Hyperliquid ($2.4B).
Technicals Point to Extended Correction Risk
Chart indicators continue to flash caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence, with price making higher highs while momentum trends lower, a pattern that historically precedes major corrections. The MACD is also flattening, suggesting fading bullish momentum.
Analyst Ali Martinez notes that the weekly RSI’s downward trendline, connecting peaks from 2024 through 2025, implies diminishing momentum strength. Meanwhile, Ted Pillows argues that the famed four-year halving cycle may no longer dominate Bitcoin’s structure, with liquidity conditions now exerting greater influence than supply mechanics.
Technically, $110,000, once firm support, now acts as resistance, while $104,000 emerges as the next critical support level. That zone also aligns with the dense cluster of put option strikes, reflecting where traders expect a potential short-term bottom. Below that, a break toward $96,500, the MVRV fair value, remains possible if downside momentum accelerates.
Awaiting Trump’s Fiscal Signals
All eyes now turn to President Trump’s upcoming address, expected to outline fiscal spending priorities and potential trade measures. Markets are particularly sensitive to any mention of tariff expansions or stimulus, which could influence global risk appetite and, by extension, crypto valuations.
Analysts believe that while policy-driven volatility may persist in the short term, institutional adoption and liquidity inflows continue to underpin Bitcoin’s structural growth. For now, traders expect consolidation between $105,000 and $120,000, with a cautious tone prevailing until clarity emerges from Washington.
In summary, Bitcoin’s latest dip reflects a blend of macro uncertainty, heavy derivative hedging and technical fatigue, rather than a full-scale reversal. Whether the next leg drives toward deeper correction or renewed recovery may hinge squarely on Trump’s next words and how markets interpret them.
