Bitcoin continued its bullish momentum as geopolitical relief and dovish signals from the US Federal Reserve bolstered investor confidence. The flagship cryptocurrency held above $105,000 into the June 24 Wall Street open, marking a strong recovery from recent lows.
Ceasefire Boosts Bitcoin and Risk Assets
Bitcoin’s rally gained traction following reports of a tentative ceasefire in the Middle East. The conflict de-escalation sparked a broader recovery across risk assets, with oil prices dipping and crypto markets climbing.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose 4.4% the previous day and was trading around $104,898 during the US market open. Traders viewed the move as a bullish trend reversal. “Strong rally from the range lows after a big liquidity grab and deviation,” said crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades. He added that BTC is now back near the mid-point of its six-week range.
Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known trader and entrepreneur, echoed the optimism, suggesting a “trend switch” in Bitcoin’s trajectory. “It’s uptrending now after a massive liquidation crash below $100K. It broke through $103K and hit the next resistance,” he said on social platform X. Van de Poppe highlighted $103,000 as the key “buy-the-dip” zone moving forward.
Institutional Confidence Holds Firm
Despite recent geopolitical volatility, institutional interest in Bitcoin has remained resilient. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to record net inflows, signalling sustained investor confidence.
US spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode/X
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted that while inflows were modest, the lack of significant outflows was a positive sign. “No major outflows were recorded either, which is a notable signal of investor confidence,” Glassnode reported.
Institutional investors appear to be maintaining their positions, showing that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a viable long-term asset, even amid global uncertainties.
Fed Hints at July Interest Rate Cut
Adding to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum was a surprise dovish turn from the US Federal Reserve. In a speech in Prague on June 23, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman indicated openness to a July interest rate cut, earlier than markets had anticipated.
“Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting,” Bowman said. She suggested that the recent data could justify moving rates closer to their “neutral” setting, helping sustain a healthy labour market.
Her comments were seen as a significant departure from the Fed’s earlier cautious stance. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still shows most market participants expect the first rate cut in September, but Bowman’s remarks have introduced fresh uncertainty into the timing.
Macroeconomic Data in Focus
The Fed’s policy direction remains heavily data-dependent. Bowman highlighted that future decisions would rely on upcoming inflation and labour market data. “If we see signs that softer spending is spilling over into weaker labour market conditions, such developments should be addressed in our policy discussions,” she said.
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The market will now be closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony before Congress on June 24–25. Pressure from political circles, including former President Donald Trump, has added complexity to the Fed’s decision-making environment.
Market Outlook
Bitcoin’s recent price action has revived hopes of a broader bull run. Traders are increasingly treating $103,000 as a key support level, with the current uptrend suggesting further upside potential.
The convergence of easing geopolitical tensions, strong institutional backing, and potential monetary policy easing by the Fed is creating a fertile ground for Bitcoin’s growth. While risks remain, especially around inflation and interest rates, the outlook has notably improved.
If momentum continues and the Fed follows through with rate cuts in July or September, Bitcoin may retest previous highs and solidify its place in the portfolio of both retail and institutional investors.
