Aster (ASTER) has been one of the most talked-about altcoins in recent weeks after delivering an explosive rally that stunned the crypto market. However, the hype has been followed by sharp volatility, leaving traders asking whether the bullish trend is over, or whether the token is simply preparing for its next leg up.

Explosive September Rally

The ASTER price stormed into the spotlight in late September with a dramatic surge. Beginning on 20 September, ASTER staged a relentless rally, climbing 350% in just four days. The move took the token to a new all-time high of $2.43 on 24 September, cementing its reputation as one of the fastest movers in the altcoin market at the time.

This parabolic rise sparked widespread interest across social platforms and trading communities. Speculation mounted over whether ASTER was establishing itself as the next breakout star in the crypto sector. However, the euphoria did not last long.

Break in Momentum and Price Decline

Following the September peak, ASTER struggled to sustain momentum. A breakdown from an ascending support trend line confirmed the end of its rapid uptrend. What followed was a sharp 32% retracement, with the token falling to as low as $1.70 by 28 September.

Since then, the price action has been contained within a descending parallel channel, a classic pattern signalling corrective movement. Despite attempts to break higher, ASTER has repeatedly failed to move beyond the upper boundary of this channel, with rejection at key resistance points.

ASTER/USDT Hourly Chart | Credit: TradingView

Momentum indicators further reinforce the cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 level, signalling weak buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has formed a bearish cross. Together, these signals suggest sellers remain in control of the short-term trend.

Technical Outlook: Wave Count Suggests More Downside

From a wave-count perspective, ASTER appears to be mid-way through a corrective pattern following its September high. Analysts suggest that the token has completed a sideways wave B phase, which began on 26 September. If so, the next stage would be a wave C decline, typically mirroring the length of wave A.

ASTER/USDT Hourly Chart | Credit: TradingView

This projection points to a potential bottom near $1.29. The level carries significant weight for multiple reasons:

• It coincides with the proportionality between waves A and C.

• It aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, often viewed as a strong support area in corrective phases.

• It matches the support trend line of the descending channel that has contained ASTER’s price action.

Such convergence of technical factors makes the $1.29 region a likely target for the end of ASTER’s correction.

What Comes Next for Aster?

While the short-term outlook remains bearish, this does not necessarily spell the end for ASTER’s broader uptrend. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles, particularly following extreme price rallies. If the token finds strong support around $1.29 and rebounds convincingly, it could lay the groundwork for a fresh bullish phase.

For now, however, traders should remain cautious. Unless ASTER can break out decisively above the descending channel, the prevailing trend favours the downside. Another test of lower support levels appears probable before any sustained reversal.

Long-term investors may view the expected correction as a potential opportunity to accumulate at lower prices. Still, short-term participants must be prepared for continued volatility as ASTER works through its corrective cycle.

Aster’s meteoric rise in September put it firmly on the crypto radar, but the subsequent correction has highlighted the risks of chasing parabolic rallies. Technical indicators and wave analysis both suggest the correction is not yet complete, with another decline towards $1.29 likely before the market stabilises.

While the long-term potential of ASTER remains a point of debate, the short-term outlook remains bearish. For now, patience and caution appear to be the most prudent strategies until the price structure confirms a breakout from its downward channel.