As the crypto industry braces for 2024, VanEck, a prominent player in the financial market, presents 15 bold predictions that encompass market dynamics, regulatory shifts, and technological advancements.
VanEck’s Bitcoin Projections
1. US Recession and Bitcoin ETFs: VanEck forecasts a US recession in early 2024, coinciding with the launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. The analysts predict significant inflows, estimating $1 billion within the first few days and $2.4 billion within a quarter.
2. Bitcoin’s 4th Halving: Anticipating a smooth Bitcoin halving in April 2024, VanEck predicts a substantial price rally for Bitcoin, potentially surpassing $48,000. The analysts foresee increased Bitcoin adoption by quasi-state entities globally.
Source: Bloomberg, VanEck research as of 11/30/23
3. Bitcoin’s Q4 All-Time High: VanEck envisions Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in Q4 2024, fueled by historical performance patterns and market trends. This ascent is expected amidst a turbulent political landscape.
Ethereum and NFT Outlook
4. Ethereum’s Market Position: While Ethereum may not surpass BTC in market capitalization, VanEck expects it to outperform mega-cap tech stocks. Ethereum is predicted to maintain a significant position, losing market share to more certain smart contract platforms.
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence as of 8/31/23
5. Ethereum Layer 2s Post-EIP-4844: Following Ethereum’s EIP-4844 implementation, VanEck foresees the rise of Layer 2 solutions capturing the majority of EVM-compatible TVL and trading volume.
6. NFT Market Rebound: Bullish on the NFT market, VanEck predicts Ethereum will lead the space, with growth in Bitcoin-based NFT offerings and a rebound in NFT volumes.
Exchanges, Stablecoins, and Bitcoin Yield
7. Shift in Exchange Dominance: VanEck anticipates a challenge to Binance’s dominance in spot trading volumes, with emerging competitors like OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget vying for leadership.
Source: DefiLlama as of 11/28/2023.
8. Stablecoin Market Cap Surge: The total value of stablecoins is predicted to surpass $200 billion, with a shift in market share from USDT to USDC.
9. DEX Market Share Increase: Decentralized Exchanges are projected to reach an all-time high in market share, driven by improved on-chain trading experiences and the rise of high-throughput chains.
10. Bitcoin Yield Opportunities: Remittances are expected to become a significant use case for blockchain technology, with the emergence of “Bitcoin Staking” on networks like the Lightning Network.
Gaming, Solana, and More
11. Breakthrough in Blockchain Gaming: At least one blockchain game is projected to surpass 1 million daily active users, indicating the potential integration of blockchain in the gaming industry.
12. Solana’s Growth: VanEck expects Solana to become a top-three blockchain by market cap, TVL, and active users, driven by efficiency and DeFi adoption.
13. Adoption of DePin Networks: Decentralized physical infrastructure networks like Hivemapper and Helium are forecasted to see meaningful adoption, capturing attention with innovative approaches.
14. New Accounting Treatment for Crypto: Changes in accounting guidelines are expected to favor the inclusion of cryptocurrency in corporate holdings, potentially leading to increased corporate investment in digital assets.
15. KYC Integration in DeFi: VanEck foresees a rise in KYC-enabled applications in the DeFi space, attracting institutional liquidity and volume, and fostering growth in the sector.
As of the latest update, BTC traded at $43,448, setting the stage for an exciting and transformative year in the crypto sphere as outlined by VanEck’s visionary predictions.
