After dominating most of the year with a powerful uptrend, Hyperliquid (HYPE) has faced a sharp reversal. The decentralised exchange (DEX) token fell by over 35% since reaching its all-time high (ATH) of $59.45 on September 18, erasing much of the progress made in the previous quarter.
This decline followed a clear breakdown from its ascending support trend line, a level that had held firm since April and provided several strong rebounds. The break signalled weakening momentum, prompting many traders to lock in profits.
However, HYPE’s story isn’t entirely bearish. The price recently found stability at a crucial horizontal support zone around $32.50, rebounding with a long lower wick, often seen as a sign of buying pressure returning to the market.
Technical Indicators Point to Recovery
Despite recent volatility, technical momentum indicators suggest that Hyperliquid could be setting up for a short-term comeback.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, indicating that selling pressure is losing strength even as prices remain low. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has printed a bullish crossover, another classic sign that momentum may be shifting back in favour of the bulls.
HYPE/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
These signals are often seen ahead of relief rallies, particularly after prolonged declines. The combination of these indicators, along with a confirmed support zone near $32.50, suggests that a potential breakout could be imminent.
If momentum continues to build, analysts expect HYPE to test the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, sitting between $46.40 and $49.45. This range is expected to serve as the first major resistance zone and price action there will determine whether HYPE’s next move is a sustained recovery or merely a temporary bounce.
Wave Count Supports a Short-Term Bullish Move
A deeper look at the Elliott Wave structure adds weight to the bullish short-term outlook. Analysts believe that HYPE has completed its corrective A-B-C wave pattern that has been unfolding since its September peak.
Notably, the entire correction fits within a descending wedge formation, a pattern that often precedes bullish breakouts. A confirmed move above this wedge would validate the end of the corrective phase and could trigger a rapid price appreciation toward mid-$40 levels.
While the long-term trend for Hyperliquid remains uncertain amid broader DEX market volatility, the technical setup strongly hints at a near-term relief rally.
Aster Falls Behind in the DEX Showdown
While Hyperliquid attempts to recover, its once-hyped rival Aster (ASTER) continues to struggle. Initially touted as a strong competitor, Aster launched with significant momentum and backing, including mentions from Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
ASTER/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
However, the optimism faded quickly. The token has slumped nearly 60% from its all-time high, performing significantly worse than HYPE. Like Hyperliquid, Aster trades within a descending wedge, showing faint signs of bullish divergence on its momentum indicators.
Yet, Aster’s fall below multiple key resistance levels suggests that any rebound will likely be limited compared to Hyperliquid’s potential. Market sentiment towards Aster remains cautious, while traders view HYPE as a more technically resilient asset in the DEX sector.
Breakout Potential: What Traders Should Watch
While Hyperliquid’s long-term outlook remains mixed, the short-term charts indicate growing bullish pressure. The RSI and MACD signals, combined with a completed corrective wave count, create a compelling case for a rebound.
If HYPE successfully breaks above the descending wedge, it could rally towards $46–$49, marking a gain of more than 40% from recent lows. A decisive close above this resistance range could reignite broader bullish sentiment, potentially positioning Hyperliquid for a return toward the $55–$60 zone.
For now, traders are watching for a confirmed breakout and sustained trading volume as validation that the correction is over. Should those conditions align, Hyperliquid could lead the next leg of the DEX market recovery, leaving Aster further behind in its wake.
