Despite XRP’s recent correction, long-term holders remain remarkably steadfast. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that XRP investors have entered the “denial” phase of the market cycle — a psychological stage marked by fading euphoria but persistent hope. XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has hovered between 0.55 and 0.65 since mid-December, suggesting holders still believe in a rebound, even as the token dropped from above $3 to around $2.
XRP long-term holders NUPL chart. Source: Glassnode
This resilience is reinforced by a notable increase in whale activity. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP has hit record highs, now exceeding 290,000. This rise in accumulation — despite the price dip — suggests high-net-worth investors are positioning for a future rally.
ETF Optimism Fuels Hope
A significant source of optimism among investors is the potential approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). Several asset management firms — including Grayscale, Bitwise, and WisdomTree — have submitted applications, with Grayscale’s filing facing a decision deadline of May 22, 2025.
ETF approval could mark a pivotal moment for XRP, bringing mainstream exposure and a fresh influx of capital. This speculative catalyst is helping to maintain bullish sentiment, particularly among long-term believers who view current prices as an accumulation opportunity.
Falling Wedge Offers Bullish Setup
From a technical standpoint, XRP has been trading within a falling wedge pattern since January — a structure often viewed as a precursor to bullish breakouts. A breakout above the resistance near $2.20 could set the stage for a surge toward $3.00–$3.40, with a theoretical peak at $3.68 based on the wedge’s height.
XRP/USD price performance chart. Source: TradingView
However, the bullish narrative depends heavily on the wedge holding its structure. A breakdown below the lower trendline would invalidate the pattern and expose XRP to downside risks, with potential targets at $1.80–$1.70. Such a move could swiftly shift market sentiment from denial to fear.
Korean Markets Signal Bearish Divergence
While Western investors maintain optimism, Korean traders are signaling a starkly different outlook. Data from the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows that over 220 million XRP — worth more than $500 million — has been sold on the XRP/KRW pair on Upbit since April 11.
This aggressive selling from South Korea suggests a bearish divergence, with Korean markets potentially leading the way in sentiment shifts. If this trend continues, it could apply downward pressure on global prices and test the conviction of XRP’s long-term holders.
