A French trader with a background in financial services has placed a staggering $45 million bet on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The bet was made on the crypto prediction market platform Polymarket, sparking both media attention and regulatory concern.

Polymarket Bets on Trump’s 2024 Win

The trader, who has extensive experience in trading, has wagered on multiple accounts, including the largest one named “Fredi9999.” These accounts collectively represent significant investments supporting Trump’s victory. As of Thursday, Polymarket showed Trump with a 61.1% chance of winning, higher than other platforms like Kalshi (58%) and PredictIt (57%).

Betting to Sway the Market?

Polymarket has confirmed that this trader’s bets appear driven by personal views rather than an attempt to manipulate the market. However, the scale of the wager has raised concerns about its potential influence on Trump’s odds in the prediction markets.

Source: Polymarket

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has long been wary of election-related betting. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam recently warned that such markets could jeopardize democracy, calling for greater regulatory oversight. Polymarket has been operating under restrictions since 2022 after settling with the CFTC, preventing it from operating in the U.S.

Social Media Speculation

The huge bet sparked online speculation about whether high-profile Americans were behind the wager, but Polymarket has confirmed that the accounts belong to non-U.S. citizens.

With $2.4 billion in trading volume, Polymarket remains a key platform for predicting election outcomes, despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny and concerns over its impact on electoral integrity.